Impact Model: Human Health as the Fulcrum

$0B

Paid for Cures

Over 20 years

$0B

Billed to Polluters

Attribution realized

$0B

Avoided Healthcare Costs

Lifetime savings from cures

People Cured

With intervention

Still Affected

Awaiting treatment

Assumptions

Cure Development Speed1.0x

Cure Efficacy75%

Rollout Speed15%/yr

Attribution Timeline10 years

Polluter Liability75%

Financial Impact Model for U.S. Population

Investment in cures, avoided healthcare costs, and treatment outcomes over time

Tip: Click any legend item above the chart to toggle that curve on/off

Disease Data

Check or uncheck diseases to include/exclude them from the financial model

	Disease	US Prevalence	Pollution Attribution %	Annual Cost/Patient

About This Model

Purpose

This model estimates the financial and human impact of investing in cures for diseases with established links to environmental pollution. By quantifying both the upfront costs of developing cures and the downstream savings from eliminating chronic disease burden, we can evaluate whether pollution-linked disease represents a viable target for large-scale health investment.

Methods

For each disease, we calculate the target population: the subset of U.S. patients whose condition is attributable to pollution exposure. We derive combined population attributable fractions (PAF) by synthesizing odds ratios from multiple environmental exposures using the formula: PAF = p(OR-1) / [p(OR-1) + 1], where p is exposure prevalence.

Target Population = U.S. Prevalence × Pollution Attribution %

Pollution Attribution Estimates

Condition	Key Exposures	PAF	Sources
Parkinson's	Pesticides, TCE, PM2.5	30%	npj PD 2023, JAMA Neurol 2023, JAMA 2024
Type 2 Diabetes	PM2.5, POPs, EDCs	20%	Lancet Planet Health 2022, PMC POPs 2017, Diabetologia 2019
CVD	PM2.5, NO2, Lead	22%	GBD 2021 Lancet, Frontiers Lead 2022
CKD	PM2.5, Lead, Cadmium	23%	PMC CKD Burden 2020, PLOS ONE 2024
COPD	PM2.5, Occupational, HAP	38%	Lancet 2017, PMC Occup 2022, GBD HAP 2021
NAFLD	PM2.5, PFAS, POPs	18%	BMC 2024, EHP PFAS 2022
Infertility	EDCs, POPs, PFAS	18%	Frontiers 2024, PMC EDC 2023, MDPI 2025
Autism	PM2.5, Pesticides	10%	Sci Rep 2023, BMC 2024, EHP 2025
Alzheimer's	PM2.5, Lead	5%	Lancet Commission 2024, Lancet Planet Health 2025
MS	Solvents, Air pollution	8%	PMC Solvents 2020, PMC Lifestyle 2019

Financial Calculations

Cures are modeled to become available after a disease-specific development period, after which patients are cured at a rate determined by rollout speed and efficacy. The model tracks three financial flows over 20 years:

Investment = People Cured × Cost Per Cure
Avoided Costs = Cumulative Cured Population × Annual Healthcare Cost Per Patient
Polluter Revenue = Investment × Liability % × Attribution Progress

Assumptions & Limitations

PAF interpretation: Population attributable fractions represent the proportion of cases theoretically preventable if exposures were eliminated—not that pollution is the sole cause.
Evidence strength varies: CVD, COPD, and diabetes have robust GBD-level evidence. NAFLD, infertility, and autism have weaker causal evidence.
Cure availability: The model assumes curative treatments become available within the specified timeline—an optimistic assumption.
Static population: The model does not account for new cases entering the population during the 20-year period.
Polluter attribution: Legal frameworks for attributing costs to polluters remain largely untested at scale.

Results

Under default assumptions, the model projects that curing pollution-attributable disease in the U.S. would require approximately $200-400 billion in upfront investment over 20 years. However, avoided healthcare costs exceed $1-2 trillion—a 4-5x return on investment.

Conclusion

Environmental pollution imposes a massive, ongoing tax on human health and healthcare systems. This model suggests that aggressive investment in cures—combined with mechanisms to attribute costs to polluters—could simultaneously improve population health, reduce long-term healthcare spending, and create financial incentives for pollution reduction at source.